Tesla plant, high demand boost optimism on Mexican economy
Bank says high interest rates will drag down Brazilian economy

 

Latin America’s top two economies are moving in opposite directions, with export and investment growth propelling Mexico while Brazil is set to fall into recession, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“Mexico is the silver lining in Latin America as it remains on a strong footing, on the back of resilient external demand, domestic consumption, and the catching up in fixed investment,” JPMorgan economists including Cassiana Fernandez and Gabriel Lozano wrote in a report published Monday.

In contrast, “Brazil, which was one of the first economies to tighten policy, will also be among the first to see a recession,” the economists wrote.

Mexico’s Dec. Fixed Investment Rises Up Most in 15 Months

Analysts became more optimistic about the Mexican economy after Tesla Inc. announced the construction of a new factory in Monterrey, an industrial city near the border with Texas, that’s likely to bring in billions of dollars of investment. Meanwhile, Brazil’s worse-than-expected end to 2022, when the economy shrank 0.2% during the final quarter, raised concerns that high interest rates will be a big drag on growth this year.

The economists don’t see Brazil’s central bank cutting rates “anytime soon,” unless there’s a deeper fall in economic activity.

“Looking ahead, we expect some economic recovery during the year – aided by a more solid external outlook particularly with China re-opening strength – but with growth remaining below potential up until the end of 2024,” they wrote.

On Monday, Mexico’s statistics institute reported that gross fixed investment grew 9.4% in December compared to the previous year, the fastest expansion since Sept. 2021. Shipments of vehicles, one of Mexico’s main exporting products, grew over 14% in February to 230,484 units, the institute said.

Source: Andrew Rosati, Bloomberg